The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been a source of tension between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. Credit: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Getty

An environmental science group has put forward a proposal to try to benefit-sharing end a long-running dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over a dam on the Nile, Africa's largest hydropower plant.

Ethiopia is building a revival dam on the Nile at a cost of nearly $5 billion that will provide electricity to two-thirds of the country's population. However, since the Nile provides 90% of Egypt's fresh water, the Egyptian government believes that the construction of this giant dam will lead to water shortages in the country, which in turn will trigger a food crisis and cause farmers to lose their jobs.

At present, the two sides are trying to mediate, but the negotiations are still deadlocked. Now, a scientific study promises a solution. Related papers were published in Nature Climate Change on February 9.

Co-author Mohammed Basheer, a water resources economist at the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom, said the idea of the study "is to bring together the cooperative behavior of countries", encouraging countries to "help each other and look after each other".

Differences between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have remained unresolved since construction of the dam began in 2011. Issues at issue relate to how quickly the project can be completed, and how much water will be released to power generators once the dam is operational.

Basheer and colleagues modeled the impact of climate change on the Nile Basin and the likely impact on each country's economy. On the basis of this data, they used artificial intelligence to create scenarios of how the dam would operate to maximize economic benefits while adapting to the impacts of climate change. However, they found that if it was in one country's best interest to operate the dam, it was less in the other two countries' interests.

If Ethiopia gets the most hydropower, it means less water for irrigation in Egypt. Conversely, if Egypt maximizes hydroelectricity, Ethiopia could suffer energy losses.

The researchers eventually came up with a compromise in which the three countries help each other and still benefit. For example, Ethiopia should increase water flow to Egypt when there is a drought and reduce it when rainfall increases. "The discussions around the negotiations have been focused on the amount of water and they need to think about sharing the benefits," Basheer said.

The authors hope this study will inform ongoing negotiations involving the African Union, the US government and the World Bank. According to Basheer, their research "provides no single solution, but a set of optimized solutions that can be negotiated".

Kevin Wheeler, a researcher on Nile dams at the University of Oxford, said the real challenge will be getting the three countries to accept a compromise.

The scientists' plan offers a "win-win solution" for these countries. "But they have to work with each other," said Sharaf Eldin Bannaga, a civil engineer at the Urban Institute of Technology in Khartoum, Sudan and the country's former infrastructure minister.

(Original title "Africa's Largest Dam Sparks Fierce Controversy, Scientists Find a Solution")

Related paper information:

https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00289-6