With rising greenhouse gas emissions and the expected arrival of El Niño later this year, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed 1.5°C, the Met Office said.
According to a report on the British "New Scientist" website on the 17th, the Met Office said in a report prepared for the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that the global average temperature will be higher than pre-industrial levels in at least one of the years from 2023 to 2027. There is a 66% chance of exceeding 1.5°C, which would mark the first time global warming has breached the warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
The Met Office said at a briefing that warming above 1.5°C in a given year does not mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. Only if this continues for several decades will it be confirmed, but it would be a worrying sign that the world is on its way to and beyond the warming threshold.
With rising greenhouse gas emissions and the expected arrival of El Niño later this year, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed 1.5°C, the Met Office said.
After three years of a La Niña phenomenon that had a cooling effect on global temperatures, earlier this month, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 90 percent chance of a global El Niño event by the end of the year, a strong El Niño May temporarily increase global average temperature by 0.3°C.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement that even if global warming does not exceed the 1.5°C threshold for the time being, it is almost certain that the world will experience record high temperatures in the next five years.
The Met Office notes that the hottest year we have experienced so far was 2016, when the global average temperature was 1.28°C above pre-industrial levels. By the end of 2027, there is a 98% chance that this record will be broken. (Original title "The world may break through the 1.5°C warming threshold before 2027")